IMO, the upcoming elections will surely highlight the utilization of traditional election schemes e.g.:
a. Campaign Machinery which includes:
1. Best Political Operators (tacticians, strategists, technicians)
2. Campaign PR and Media Messaging
3. Campaign Funds
4. Grassroots Operations and Networks
5. GOTV (Get out the votes) Dynamics
Not to mention that local political parties have employed Survey Firms to help them in their messaging schemes. If one is too attentive with scheme of things, surveys are being used by all potential candidates to deliver a strong and credible posture of themselves in the public using all forms of media.
But I still need to see a candidate who can really exploit the power of "Big Data" in a national elections right in our country. Whoever is the first to use this technology for sure will have an advantage.
Within the Philippine Presidential Race there's really no clear cut difference within the candidates even if they claim they're not "pro-administration", "pro-daang matuwid" or "opposition".
Liberal Party's Presidential Curse - Ever since Diosdado Macapagal, this political party has been on a tail spin, if not for its party icons with the likes Jovito Salonga, Gerry Roxas, Benigno Aquino Jr. this party could have been gone to obscurity.
It only got lucky in 2010, after Mar Roxas became the sacrificial lamb and Noynoy Aquino manages to win the presidency after the death of his mother Corazon Aquino. (Speaking of "Cory magic")
Now how would this party fare after a post-Aquino era is over. Good thing Paul Bograd is in town. An american political strategist hired by the administration to boost Roxas chances. I see his trademark hitting its mark lately.
The administration has brilliantly employed its tactics quite well to disrupt the Vice Presidents Binay's surge for the last 3-4 months. Orchestrating the "divide the stream" plan. We're seeing Grace Poe, Chiz Escudero, Rod Duterte and even bringing in Erap Estrada into the Presidential race.
Danding Cojuangco's Nationalist People's Coalition will definitely be the key here for the administration whether it will act as a campaign financier just like what it did for Noynoy or will serve as a "nuissance party" to help catapult Mar Roxas who is slowly making his way up is Bograd's strategic template.
Erap Estrada's case is also worth suspecting, until now the former President now Manila mayor has not fully committed himself to his friend Vice President Jejomar Binay after having a falling out regarding the political demise of the former's son Jinggoy Estrada because of the pork barrel scam. The mayor is seem to have been co-opted or politically blackmailed since his son is behind bars.
While on the other hand, a strong voice coming from the south seems to echo the political aspirations of its owner - Rod Duterte, many of us seems to admire the temerity, boldness and novelty of this local official. But we should also check on his political skill set. The man is intelligently being advised in withholding to the public his aspirations. The guy has learned from the vice president's experience of throwing his hat early in the ring lest he be demolished.
Contrary to survey results last year, Vice President Binay is no longer at the top, thanks to unwavering mudslinging during senate hearings, character assassinations and picturing the Binay as one of the long lost leaders of the AXIS Powers. But speaking of political capital, the Vice President has actually invested and been well-entrenched since his 2010 Vice Presidential run. His "sister city" blueprint has earned him support from where the votes are - The LGU grassroots. No wonder Mar Roxas was place in DILG in 2012 to counter the Binay wildfire. I can't blame him if there's indeed a confirmation of an alliance between his former enemies in GMA's LAKAS-CMD, for politics is always all about addition and multiplication even if there's a realization that birds of the same feathers robbed together. UNA which is on the defensive lately is losing the messaging battle. It needs to get seasoned political operators and more spokesperson to speak on Vice President's Presidential agenda. Toby Tiangco will do for now, but he'll be no matched against Noynoy's media politburo of Coloma, Valte, Lacierda, Cong. Quimbo, Cong. Evardone, Cong. Erice and Manolo Quezon combined. Not to mention former PNOy's messaging craftsman Ricky Carandang working as a sidekick to Paul Bograd. UNA would need to get out the administration's pork-barrel, corruption and political dynasty traps if it needs to place the vice president as the head of Malacanan by 2016. Probably mission impossible.
Mar Roxas political curse is irreversable. Pity this man for sacrificing his ambition for a full term only to be on the same quagmire for his political party's blunders. Luckily the guy has all the government resources at his disposal even hiring the an American political consultant to chart his presidential plans. It seems the investment has paid off for now.
Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos - although not as brilliant as his dad, but the "dark horse" has steadily and successfully rode on the issue of the BBL to his advantage. It's just a matter of time perhaps July or August whether or not his campaign will totally take shape.
The rest like Mirriam Defensor Santiago, Gibo Teodoro, Manuel V. Pangilinan, Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes will just have spice our discussions occasionally.
I will expect a sophisticated media and grassroots war among adversaries. Perhaps a a bitter rumble similar with the 2004 elections. You have a 4-5 corner fight in which two to three players can be dummy ploys that will work for the administration's advantage. Watch out for Grace Poe and Erap being co-opted to catapult Mar's ambitions. As pundits would say, the more players the better will it be for the administration. Now it just the matter of how the administration will translate it into real votes for their advantage.
Jojo, Mar,Bongbong, Grace, and Erap is how will I put it by 2016. The last two would be my patsies.
